Some consequences I can see if ever the mandatory shunning would be done away with:
- Many dubs will continue shunning anyway. WT policy has become their identity; that can't be changed simply by shunning not be mandatory anymore. Only if WT would forbid shunning they'd change. Compare with the unofficial shunning of former JW who are neither DA or DF; they are shunned even though the rules don't strictly say JW must do that. Fundamentalist religionists think and act black and white, us vs them, even if shunning were not explicitly mandatory.
- Quite a few PIMO will leave. I estimate perhaps up to 10%.
- Many already faded dubs/POMO will finally officially withdraw themselves from the religion by DAing. I would!
- The most interesting result would be long term though. Humans have the tendency to attribute high(er) value to things that have cost them much. And the more we have already paid for something, the more we are prepared to pay on top. Shunning your own dear friends, parents, children, siblings is as high as cost can get for JW living in free countries. Once they have resolutely shunned on command, they become even more determined and motivated to make that high emotional cost worth while. They are more likely to stay in the religion longer. Without mandatory shunning, less JW will pay this ultimate price, and I think on average the JW will become inactive and leave a little sooner. This lower retention rate translates in lower membership numbers.